Araştırma / İngilizce Raporlar

Inflation Pulse

03 Ekim 2017, 13.35

Consumer prices increased by 0.65% (mom) in September, in line with consensus but slightly lower than ours (0.8%). Annual consumer inflation, hence, rose to 11.2% from August’s 10.7%. Core inflation was the negative surprise, reaching 11% higher than both our and market’s expectation of 10.6%. Negative food inflation in contrast to its seasonal average avoided the headline to climb up further although its yearly figure still rose on top of base impact. This year’s methodological change assigning fixed weights and second round price effects on cost push factors created a sharper pressure on core prices together with the recent appreciation of Euro and spillovers from narrowing output gap. Besides, domestic producer prices (D-PPI) continues its high path, maintaining the annual figure at 16.3%. We expect the headline to converge to 11.5% in October and even higher in November before it falls towards 10% at the end of 2017 with favorable base effects.

KISACA

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