Araştırma / İngilizce Raporlar

Turkey: Credit Shock & the Economy

10 Ekim 2017, 15.00

The Credit Guarantee Fund (KGF) was implemented in March 2017 as a countercyclical tool to support the recovery of the economy after the slump of last year (3Q-2016) and the uncertainty shock that hit the economy during the summer. The KGF has been successful so far, as it has provided some extra GDP growth through both the increase in supply and demand of credit. While we maintain this positive scenario on this “credit supply” shock, it will also have side effects. In this watch, we use a Sign Restrictions SVAR model to disentangle the effects of the KGF on the economy from both supply and demand of credit. The initial credit supply shock has been also followed by credit demand, thus contributing to stimulate further the economic growth. While credit supply boosted the 2Q GDP growth by near 1pp (0.7pp), this extra stimulus could grow further in 3Q. However, there are no “free lunch” policies and this one will have also side effects to monitor.

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